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Tens of millions of dollars have been spent on television advertising in the four states with important elections on Tuesday, a sign of the national implications of their results.
Whether it’s state lawmakers in Virginia, a constitutional amendment in Ohio or gubernatorial candidates in Kentucky and Mississippi, the ads share some themes.
Threats to abortion rights are prominent in Democrats’ ads, even in states where the issue is not explicitly on the ballot. Since the reversal of Roe v. Wade last year, Democrats have had electoral success by galvanizing opposition to restrictive abortion laws.
Advertisements by Republican candidates, in turn, often tie Democrats to President Biden’s record, as well as prevailing inflation, taxes, and economic uncertainty. And if the Republican candidates have had the endorsement of former President Donald J. Trump, it’s a good bet that he will appear in their ads.
The high-stakes clash over abortion in Ohio
In Ohio, voters will be asked to vote “yes” or “no” on Question 1, a ballot initiative that would enshrine the constitutional right to “carry out one’s own reproductive decisions,” effectively blocking the Republican-controlled legislature from enact a strict law. anti-abortion bill.
But confusion over the initiative’s language, including the limits on abortion it would allow the state to impose, has been amplified by misinformation and hype on and off the airwaves.
An ad published by Protect Women Ohio (an anti-abortion group that has spent more than $6.7 million on advertising, according to AdImpact, a media tracking company) features the state’s Republican governor, Mike DeWine, and his wife, Fran , who say: “Issue 1 would allow an abortion at any time during pregnancy and would deny fathers the right to participate in their daughters making the most important decision of their lives.”
(The statement is misleading: The amendment explicitly allows the state to restrict the procedure after the point of fetal viability, around 23 weeks, unless the patient’s doctor believes the procedure is necessary to protect the patient’s life or health. ).
Most “vote no” ads talk about unease among voters over late-term abortions, which data show are very rare and generally performed in cases where doctors say the fetus will not survive.
Ohioans United for Reproductive Rights, a coalition of abortion rights groups that support the amendment, has spent $19.5 million on advertising since early September, AdImpact analysis shows. The group’s ads, and “vote yes” ads in general, frame the issue as government interference in personal health care decisions and doctors’ ability to make life-saving decisions.
They also raise alarm bells about girls who are forced to bear a rapist’s child. In an ad, says a man: “The State is trying to prohibit abortion, even in cases of rape. When I hear that, all I can think is: what if she is my daughter?
Virginia’s pivotal state legislative races
All 140 seats in the Virginia General Assembly are up for election, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, is leading an effort to shift both chambers to GOP control. The election will serve as a barometer of Youngkin’s popularity, gauge local sentiment toward Biden and test whether abortion continues to mobilize voters.
In total, about $72 million, including money from national groups, has been spent on advertising time in the state, with a dozen of the most competitive races accounting for about $50 million in advertising.
Democrats have generally argued that if Republicans prevail, Virginia will join other Southern states in sharply restricting abortion rights, while Republican ads have focused on tax cuts and job creation. Many of them feature Mr. Youngkin.
Some ads have featured direct attacks, with accusations of racism, socialism and scam. But in the closest races, some candidates have tried to find a middle ground: Democrats quoting their gun ownership, or Republicans say they want protect women’s rights.
Kentucky’s decision on a Democratic governor
Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, and the committees supporting him have spent $46.9 million on advertising ahead of the election, according to AdImpact analysis, far surpassing the $28.6 million spent supporting his Republican opponent, Daniel Cameron, the state’s attorney general.
Almost all of that spending came from two entities: Beshear’s campaign and Defending Bluegrass Values, a committee backed by the Democratic Governors Association, each of which has spent more than $23 million.
Ads supporting Beshear have focused on two main themes: criticizing Republicans for their opposition to abortion rights and Mr. Beshear’s Record on infrastructure and economic growth. The ads have avoided mentioning Biden, who has low approval ratings nationally and especially in very conservative Kentucky.
Mr. Cameron’s campaign ads have painted the popular Beshear as a Biden ally, yielding to the left on crime, LGBTQ rights and schools. Ads supporting him, many of which are linked to national organizations including the Republican Governors Association, have had strong effects presented Mr. Trump approval from Mr. Cameron (which also includes insinuations against Mr. Biden).
Mississippi’s challenge to a Republican governor
In Mississippi, Governor Tate Reeves, a Republican weakened by an expanding welfare scandal involving well-connected Republican donors, has also been backed by Trump.
That support comes in an ad portray Reeves’ Democratic opponent, Brandon Presley, as a puppet of “Joe Biden’s people.” (Other advertisement says Mr. Presley’s campaign money comes from “liberal states”).
The two sides have spent a similar amount of money on advertising: $8.5 million for Presley and $9.5 million for Reeves.
Advertisements featuring Mr. Presley, a cousin of Elvis Presley, with a voice to prove it, have in focus about his upbringing and leaned toward the argument that Mr. Reeves “doesn’t care about workers.”
Mr. Presley, who has said he is “pro-life,” has also campaigned on the expansion of Medicaid to the state. Health care is a major focus of Democratic ads in Mississippi, where hospitals face an acute funding crisis.