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Voters in Ohio, Kentucky, Virginia, Mississippi and elsewhere will head to the polls Tuesday in off-year elections that will offer clues about the continued potency of abortion against the burden of President Biden’s low approval ratings as politicians prepare for the next presidential elections. .
The results may determine whether Democrats find some reassurance in their approach to key issues such as abortion, which was a bright spot for the party in a new New York Times/Siena poll that showed Donald J. Trump leading Biden in five critical states. a year out.
Here’s what you should look at:
Access to abortion in the face of Biden’s unpopularity in Virginia and Kentucky.
The 140 seats in Virginia General Assembly are on Tuesday’s ballot, and the Democratic-leaning state’s relatively popular Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin, hopes to capture the state Senate and secure full Republican control of Richmond. That feat would boost Youngkin’s national ambitions.
But Democrats are running on abortion rights and warning that GOP control would end abortion access in the last state in the Southeast.
Mr. Youngkin is testing a commitment that national Republicans hope will be a winning message after so many partisan defeats since the Supreme Court struck down the constitutional right to abortion: a ban on abortion access after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exemptions for rape, incest and life of the mother. Democrats say it’s a ruse, but they must overcome the weight of Biden’s unpopularity.
A similar dynamic is developing in Kentuckywhere Democrats have leaned heavily on the abortion issue, especially to tarnish the Republican rival for governor, Daniel Cameron, who, as the state’s current attorney general, has had to defend Kentucky’s total abortion ban. The current Democratic governor, Andy Beshear, remains popular, with a last name (his father, Steve Beshear, was also governor) and a moderate reputation that have protected him against attacks. soft on crime and supports “radical” transgender rights.
Mr. Beshear has consistently led in polls, but in a state that former President Donald J. Trump won by about 26 percentage points in 2020, the “D” in Beshear’s name is a liability. The final surveys of the cycle marked a tie.
Will Ohio voters support abortion rights?
Ohio has been a reliably Republican state since Trump’s rise, but a referendum to establish abortion rights under the state constitution could be the purest test Tuesday of where even Republicans stand on the issue. Or not.
Abortion rights groups have been on a winning streak with ballot measures that put the issue of abortion directly to voters since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, eliminating constitutional protections for abortion rights. Even in deeply red states like Kansas, voters have overwhelmingly supported abortion access. But abortion opponents scored some important victories ahead of Tuesday’s referendum. In this race, voters will have to vote affirmatively “yes” to a constitutional change; Historically, Ohioans have tended to reject ballot amendments.
While the amendment would establish “the right to make and carry out one’s own reproductive decisions,” It also explicitly allows the State to prohibit abortion after viability., or about 23 weeks, when the fetus can survive outside the uterus, unless the pregnant woman’s doctor deems the procedure “necessary to protect the life or health of the pregnant patient.” But at the polls, voters will see a summary from the secretary of stateFrank LaRose, a Republican who opposes abortion, who says the amendment “would always allow a fetus to be aborted at any stage of pregnancy, regardless of its viability.”
Both sides of the issue have accused each other of disinformation and underhanded tactics.
In Mississippi, a test for Medicaid expansion… and a scandal.
MississippiThe abortion ban overturned Roe v. Wade when the Supreme Court sided with Mississippi health officer Thomas E. Dobbs in Dobbs v. Jackson.
The Deep South state now faces a pitched battle for governor, but the candidates have not made abortion the central issue, as the incumbent Republican governor, Tate Reeves, and his Democratic rival, Brandon Presley, oppose it.
Instead, Presley’s surprisingly potent challenge has been fueled by a push to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act and a public corruption scandal that saw $94 million in federal funds intended for Mississippi’s poor be wasted on projects like a collegiate volleyball facility powered by retired superstar quarterback Brett Favre.
Reeves was never directly involved in the scandal, but he fired an investigative attorney just after the lawyer issued a subpoena that could have revealed details about the involvement of prominent Mississippians.
“If you think Tate Reeves is going to deal with corruption, I have a beachfront property in Nettleton to sell you,” Presley said. in a debate this monthreferring to his hometown in the northeast of the state.
Mr. Presley, a member of the Mississippi Public Service Commission, has unique name recognition; He is Elvis Presley’s second cousin.
But in Mississippi, Reeves has three advantages that could be impenetrable: his position, the “R” next to his name on the ballot, and the endorsement of Mr. Trumpwho won the state in 2020 by almost 17 percentage points.
Electoral initiatives, from riches to weed.
Voters will make numerous direct decisions on Tuesday, bypassing elected officials. Beyond abortion, the most followed initiative will be, again, in Ohio, where voters will decide whether cannabis should be legalized for recreational use. If voters agree, Ohio would become the 24th state to legalize marijuana. That could put pressure on Congress to push legislation that at least eases restrictions on interstate banking for legal cannabis businesses.
jeans will decide the fate of 14 constitutional amendments, including one that would prohibit the state from imposing a “wealth” tax, or a tax on the market value of assets owned but not sold. Liberal activists and some prominent Democratic senators, such as Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, have pushed such taxes as the only way to tap the wealth of billionaires, whose income taxes are minimal but whose vast tax-free wealth supports lavish lifestyles.
Texans will also decide whether to raise the mandatory retirement age for state judges from 75 to 79.